S&P 500 Equity Index

S&P 500

Update 28/02/2016

The S&P has traced out cycles in common with most of the global markets with the most recent low probably being of 20 week magnitude. Take a look at the phasing of the German DAX too for an example of commonality.

A chance that this whole 18 month cycle is infact forming a triangle cannot be discounted at this stage.

Update 20/08/2015

Quick update: The target was NOT achieved for the ‘E’ category interaction after the probable 40 day bounce on the 12th of August. It was missed by a far margin, indicating that the underlying trend of larger cycles has turned down. Price has come back down through the FLD for an ‘F’ category short which I have taken. I expect price to move generally downwards until the next 80 day low due early to mid September. Other indices have already taken out the 40 week low, I expect the S&P to do the same. Bearish.


Update 17/08/2015

A probable 40 day cycle trough formed on the 12th of August across worldwide indices. The S&P 500 has bounced nicely from this low and projects a target of around 2120 (tbc) for this ‘E’ category long trade cross of the 20 day FLD. This market is certainly more bullish than the DJIA, which has already broken the 40 week low made back in early July. A crucial sign of underlying trend will be whether the target is achieved for this 20 day FLD cross. Bearish signs in the S&P include the 20 week VTL (upward sloping green line on chart below) broken to the downside, although not convincingly by median price. A break of a VTL indicates a peak has occured of a cycle ONE DEGREE higher than the VTL’s cycle. In this case that is the 40 week and suggests that the high of July 20th will not be breached.

I did not take a long in this market as I believe shorts will be more profitable moving into a major (18 month) low late March/April 2016. I most certainly will be taking the next short trade (an ‘F’ category for the move down into the first 80 day cycle of 4 in this current 40 week. Chances are high that the 40 week low will be breached in the S&P and Nasdaq during this 80 day cycle, which is bearish for equities as clearly there are 3 80 day cycles remaining after this one before the 18 month low. Exciting times.


Update 22/07/2015

Price moved up from the anticipated 40 week on the 5th of July, slightly earlier than thought and the action was choppy. Nevertheless a cross of the 20 day FLD was profitable with the T2 target hit and exceeded as you might expect from a bounce of this magnitude. The next few month’s movements are crucial to know whether a top of the 9 year cycle has formed. Of course all markets move in common with each other and the 40 week is now well established across other indices such as the German DAX. Here is the chart of the S&P 500:


While not as bullish as the Nasdaq has been out of this trough the S&P may well go on to make slightly new highs. However we must be on the lookout for a chance to short this market. I anticipate that the 40 week low may well be breached in the 2nd 80 day cycle of this 40 week. Watch this space or follow me on twitter for more updates.

The current cycle move in the short term is down into what is the first 20 day cycle of this first 80 day cycle. Price should find support at the 20 day FLD here before moving back up in a ‘C’ category interaction.

Update 30/06/2015

The main barometer for markets worldwide is probably the S&P 500 and it has been tracing out fairly good cycle shapes in what is possibly a topping pattern of a 9 year cycle. Certainly the price action has been pretty turgid since the 18 month low back in October. We are expecting a 40 week trough and volatility has been on the up. Here is the overview from October.

SPX500_£__daily_30_06_2015Of note in this phasing is the perfect nominal length of the 80 day and 40 day cycle. Hurst’s original nominal model (from the 1970s!) extracted an 80 day length of 68 days and 34 for the 40 day. When I see this kind of 0% variation I sit up and take notice. This suggests we have a single 20 day cycle left before the 40 week low in early/mid July.SPX500_£__daily_30_06_2015_2Taking a closer look we are due a bounce for the 20 day cycle. Chances are it will find resistance at the 20 day FLD before the final descent. Price has also crossed the 40 week FLD, indicating a top in that cycle has occured. 40 week FLD T2 target is 2034. If that is overshot it will indicate the larger cycles are indeed turning down. Watch this space for further updates.

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