Oil Price bounces out of 40 day trough, Brent stronger

Oil continues to play by the cyclic rules (what doesn’t?!) and looks like it is bouncing out of a 40 day trough, following the large (at least 20 week) trough in January. There was some ambiguity as to whether the low on Jan 13 was infact the correct trough and I explored this in my post comparing WTI and Brent. The move down into the 40 day trough met and slightly overshot its target from the 20 day FLD interaction on WTI. However, Brent crude simply found support at the 20 day FLD. This says to me Brent is more bullish at the moment and I am more confident in the placement of the 20 week trough in January, for both oil types.

Below are two charts, WTI and Brent crude


CL 04-15_daily_13_02_2015

  • Price moved down into the 40 day trough, measured at 29 days. Current average is 30. Looks probable for the correct placement. Target was slightly overshot, I will count as met, suggesting underlying trend is flat.
  • Now moved up into ‘E’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD.

BrentBRN 04-15_daily_13_02_2015

  • Price found support at the convergence of the 80 day and 20 day FLD then bounced, moving off from what is probably the 40 day trough in this instrument.
  • More bullish than WTI.


  • Pawel

    Hi David. Could you analyze Dollar Index Cycles? Here is it picture with dollar index time prognosis from Larry Williams 2015 forecast.
    I think you certainly will find something similar and in Hurst cycle analisys

    • Hi Pawal, yes of course, I will have a look later today.

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