Isa Stocks and Shares Case Study

Trading with Hurst Cycles: Case Study using a Stocks and Shares ISA

02/05/2016: Balance: £33456.60 / 119% Gain / 301 Days Elapsed

Good rebound over a longer period brings me over my target of doubling the initial investment. The final figure will be posted the 5th of July, exactly a year on from the original deposit into the ISA. Gains in equity markets following an 18 month cycle bounce aswell as positive results in natural gas and crude have helped capital growth during this period. I continue to trade the 80 day cycle within this case study.

30/11/2015: Balance: £26564.20 / 74% Gain / 147 Days Elapsed

Gains in crude,forex and PMs were eclipsed by losses in equities after a larger than expected bounce. The cycle magnitude of the bounce in the equity markets is now believed to be an 18 month (nominal), rather than 40 week (nominal).

30/09/2015: Balance: £28000.88 / 84% Gain / 76 Days Elapsed

I thought it would be useful to provide a live, ‘skin in the game’ example of possible yields using Hurst’s techniques for readers of this website and those interested in the principles of the late JM Hurst. To that end I decided to deposit the maximum annual allowance, per year, here in the UK into a ‘stocks and shares ISA’. For those who are not familiar with this type of savings account, it was introduced by the UK government several years ago to encourage saving amongst the population. There is a standard ‘cash ISA’ which pays a regular (low) interest rate on cash savings within it and a ‘stocks and shares ISA’ that allows the saver to put their capital to work buying shares, ETFs and funds. The main difference between ISA’s and regular savings accounts is that any interest recieved or gain made above the initial invested maximum (that’s £15240 this FY) is totally tax free.

I intend to use this capital to trade using Hurst’s cyclic principles, demonstrating the true nature of market movements and the possible yields available to the informed trader or investor.

Below is a screenshot of my current ISA account on the 29th of September 2015, showing the initial £15240 deposited on the 5th of July 2015. The current balance is £28000.88 (given as ‘total value’) at the time of writing, a gain of 84% over roughly two and a half months.

I must emphasise that this case study is performed with my own REAL money, no paper trading involved! I will update this page every few months to show progress (or lack of!).

isa1Trades were made via long and short ETF index, commodity and forex trackers, usually leveraged. Some individual equities were also purchased on the long side. The FLD trading strategy was used at all times using the 80 day cycle as the timeframe to work in and crosses of the 20 day or 10 day FLD as the action signal.

As you can see, results are very good using the power of Hurst. Gains way over the average hedge fund performance can be achieved and I hope to prove this in the coming months as I update this page with the case study progress.

If you wish to recieve updates on my trading, please do follow me on twitter where I post regular thoughts on a variety of instruments.

Disclaimer: The above ‘live case study’ is not intended as investment advice and should not be interpreted as such. It is intended purely as an educational document for those interested in JM Hurst’s trading techniques. Do not invest money you cannot afford to lose.

2 comments

  • Donal McConville

    The 84% return is very impressive but I would interested to see a list of the trades you made to get that return.

    • Hi Donal,

      Sorry for the (very) late reply. Yes I may well do this during the next tax year. There is no great secret however, the majority of the trades I take are detailed in the blogposts that I endeavour to update on a regular basis! As for the methodology – it is all on this site for the curious, dedicated and determined to discover.

      Thanks

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