Gold and Silver Break Previous Lows

80 Day Still to Come?

Earlier this week I set out a post that speculated a trough of at least 80 day magnitude had formed in gold and silver. Well, I have been watching the move up this week and it was pretty weak, not what I would expect from a move up out of a major trough. With that in mind I took profits from my long and anticipated a short entry on a break of previous lows.

Today we broke those lows in a strong move down. This implies two possible scenarios in my opinion.

  1. The 80 day trough is still to come early next week (most probable)
  2. The 80 day trough is straddled and we are in for a very bearish time in these two precious metals going forward (less probable).

Below is my refined gold chart expecting the 80 day (and 20 week by this analysis) round about now or early next week.

XAUUSD_£__daily_06_03_2015This analysis I actually prefer to the previous post about gold as it ties up with the silver chart from a synchronous perspective. Notice also there are no pinned troughs this time, Sentient Trader has had no influence from me on this particular phasing.

I will probably be aggressive with this long entry and take a cross of the 5 day FLD or VTL (pale line on chart)


Always good practice to compare similar markets that move together in cyclic unison so below is my phasing on silver:

XAGUSD_£__daily_06_03_2015The nest of lows in silver is not as neat as gold but it looks good for a move up next week. Entry will be on a cross of the 10 day FLD this time I think.

Should price move down further next week and continue to look weak I will begin to think that infact the 80 day was straddled this week. That is bearish.

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