FTSE 100 Index

FTSE 100

Update 21/08/2015

I mentioned in the previous update that the bounce out of the 40 week low will be crucial in determining whether the bull market from 2009 is over. Well this week’s events have sealed it for me with all indices around the world taking out their respective 40 week trough, leading the way for a decline into the 18 month cycle due March/April next year. The FTSE has continued it’s bearish bias compared to other indices by being one of the first to break its 40 week low this week. The clue was in a possible straddled 40 day low on the 12th of August, from which US markets bounced past the 20 day FLD. European markets, including the DAX, failed to do this and the subsequent collapse is typical of a trough being straddled. Here’s the latest chart:

FTSE100_£__daily_21_08_2015Price formed a nice bounce initially out of the 40 week then collapsed into a bearish ‘B’ category interaction and the 20 day cycle low. The FTSE did this previously out the last 18 month trough so caution was advised before getting too bearish. The ‘C’ category interaction just missed it’s target to the upside before collapsing into what is probably (as mentioned above) the 40 day low on August the 12th, although Sentient Trader has yet to confirm that low. The next point where I may go long is the 80 day low due mid September for a countertrend bounce. I am holding shorts from around 6700.

There is an outside chance that the 40 week is yet to occur and the 80 day due in September will be the 40 week by the principle of synchonicity. However I think this is unlikely, but worth keeping in mind. Price has also taken out the 54 month upward VTL, indicating that the peak on April 16th 2015 is the peak of a 9 year cycle.

Update 13/07/2015

This is the first journal update I have posted on the Ftse, purely because it has been a fairly tricky market to phase up until the last month or so. Certainly compared to the US markets and the DAX/EUSTOXX it has been pretty choppy. Price action suggests of all the worldwide indices the FTSE is the weakest. Indeed the recent probable 40 week low, as shown in the chart below exceeded both its 20 week and 40 week FLD T2 targets by a large margin.

FTSE100_£__daily_13_07_2015There is some trough pinning going on here which is not always a good sign but the principle of commonality guides a Hurst trader when one market is hazy. All markets round the world I believe are bouncing out of a 40 week cycle low here and this next move will be crucial in determining whether the bull market, which many have enjoyed over several years, is now over.

In the short term the move up past the 20 day FLD was an ‘A’ category interaction in the FLD trading strategy and has exceeded it’s unconfirmed T2 targets. I do not expect the FTSE to take out the highs achieved in April but a test of those highs is a chance to go long before a really great shorting chance will present itself for the move into the 18 month low, early 2016.

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