Euro vs Us Dollar Forex Pair


Update 28/02/2016

EURUSD bounced early from a mid channel pause that formed as a triangle during January. The 80 day bounce was very similar to the previous sharp move up back in December. I am still of the view that we will see lower lows here and a very large cycle low at the end of this current 40 week cycle.

Near term the next trade will be an ‘E’ category long out of a 40 day cycle trough. After that I will be taking a short for the move down into the 20 week cycle low, due at the end of March. That should be a good bearish ‘F’ category move I think.

In the chart below note the excellent resistance from the 40 week FLD. That is a good sign of an accurate phasing.

Update 25/01/2016

The EURUSD pair provided a most gratifying trade for me in 2015. It wasn’t the most profitable trade by far but it was great to have a famous, large US investment bank issuing a bearish warning a day before price rocketed up. There was an ECB meeting one day subsequent to the cycle low where pundits had predicted Mario Draghi would either cut rates or jawbone in a dovish manner. He did neither of the two and provided what I call an ‘acceleration event’ in the cyclic picture. It is important to realise the probabilities of fundamental events influencing cycles that have already turned can inform the savvy Hurst aficionado of their likely result. In this case the strong move up was a sign that most market participants expected bearish sentiment, covering shorts. For Hurst traders we expected a bullish move…

The setup itself was facile and great for cycle traders. We knew we were very close to a 40 week low and the risk to the downside was small. I entered long on a cross of the 20 day FLD and also again above the high on December the 2nd. The T2 target for the ‘A’ category transaction was hit aswell as the 40 day T2 target on the same day!

Subsequent to the initial rocket a quite different, more bearish picture has emerged. If the larger cycle low back in March 2015 was indeed a low of 54 month nominal magnitude I would have expected the 2nd 40 week bounce to break the 40 week FLD easily. Instead it has found resistance at this FLD, which suggests to me that infact this current 18 month is the FINAL 18 month of a 54 month cycle. The low of which would then be due in the summer of this year. I am also considering commonality with the EURGBP pair as an aside.

A break of the 40 week low in the coming months will confirm this and I will short it there for the descent. I have a feeling price will move into the next 80 day at the start of February and move up for a final time, perhaps touching a 40 week downward VTL (not shown yet). That could be a great place to short.


Update 30/11/2015

The Euro continues to display fairly nice cycles, the 20 week being the most visually apparent in this current 40 week cycle. I am expecting a 40 week bounce soon and it is very close. Price action has been choppy over the last few weeks, grinding downwards.

EURUSD_£__daily_30_11_2015I will take a long on a cross of the 20 day FLD to the upside, or perhaps a VTL cross of the 10 day or 5 day on a lower timeframe chart. I am expecting price to move up and find resistance at the 80 day FLD in the first instance. If the longer term low back in March was indeed a low of 54 month magnitude I would expect the high in August to be tested. If it was only an 18 month I would expect a far weaker bounce.

Update 26/10/2015

The last update a while back was considering the 20 week bounce, which happened slightly earlier than anticipated. We can now see in hindsight that bounce was profitable and the cycles have been exemplary since. We are expecting a large 40 week cycle low towards the end of November, below is the current phasing.

EURUSD_£__daily_26_10_2015The crucial point about this chart is whether price will take out the low made back in March, which was potentially a huge 54 month cycle low. If it does the phasing in terms of the longer cycles will have to be reconsidered. If it does not, however, there is a excellent chance to get long out of the forthcoming 40 week low.

Currently price is just about to bounce out of the final 40 day cycle of the 40 week. This will be an ‘E’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD but I will be holding fire on going long. Instead I will be watching price to get back in short for the ‘F’ during the move down into the 40 week low. Watch the 80 day FLD closely above price – if it gets to there look for resistance and a great chance to short around 1.12.

Projections for both the 20 week and 40 week FLDs are around 1.06. If price fails to hit that target the underlying trend is bullish and the 54 month cycle low in March is most probably valid.

Update 16/07/2015

The Euro formed a messy ‘E’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD at the 40 day low and this was a difficult trade to short for the move down into the 20 week trough, due early August. Nonetheless price fell and is now due for a bounce out of this last 20 day cycle before another leg down to complete the 20 week. There is a 20 week FLD T2 target at 10641.

A worthwhile guide is to use the EUR/GBP cycle phasing as commonality for the EUR/USD. Its cyclical movements are somewhat cleaner at this point.


Update 10/07/2015

Some choppy price action followed the gap down on Greece news and perhaps was the nominal 40 day low. However subsequent to that a new low was formed in a classic ‘double bottom’ pattern so consistent with a 40 day trough and ‘D’ category interaction. Price has now moved up through the 20 day FLD and the T2 target is around 11300, to be confirmed. I think the 20 week low may possibly form the end of a triangle consilidation period for the Euro mid August. Lets see.


Update 29/06/2015

Target was hit and exceeded on Sunday evening, helped by some fundamental shenanigans. Next trade is an ‘E’ category long and price looks to be bouncing out of that particular low (40 day) now. This will be the last 40 day in the 20 week cycle so I probably will not take the trade and look to short again for the ‘F’ category on the way down to the 20 week low, due early August.


Update 24/06/2015

Target is 11028 on this ‘D’ category short into the 40 day cycle trough.

Update 23/06/2015

The Euro against the US Dollar is one of the more popular forex pairs to trade and luckily for us as Hurst traders it has been showing excellent cyclic movement of late. There was a large trough of at least 20 week magnitude back in March. It is possibly a trough of 4.5 year magnitude too but I am unclear on that. Here is a possible long term picture:EURUSD_£__daily_23_06_2015_lt

While this is a valid analysis my uncertainty comes from the fact the central 18 month cycle here is inverted, not a good sign. I think there could possibly be more downside to come.

EURUSD_£__daily_23_06_2015 Working from the shorter term cycles though there have been some excellent trades to get into. The ‘E’ category long in April was a stellar trade as was the long out of the 80 day trough late April. Both exceeding their T2 targets by a large margin.

Now however we have a short in play, a ‘D’ category that could possibly mark the top of this 20 week cycle. Price has just crossed the 20 day FLD to the downside and targets look to be around the 1.1 mark. Watch this space for confirmation of the T2 target in the coming days.

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