Dollar Index (DXY)

Dollar Index (DXY)

Update 05/07/2015

The dollar index has traced out a rather nice 40 day cycle here and moved up from a low on Thursday the 18th of June in an ‘E’ category transaction. Price has, so far, failed to reach its target of 98.88 by just 0.2%. I believe with this current 40 day cresting and the first 40 day cycle pretty bearish (the ‘D’ category overshot) it is time to get ready for the ‘F’ category short. I am prepared to take a short on a cross of the 10 day FLD here for the move down into a trough of at least 20 week magnitude due in late July:

DX 09-15_daily_05_07_2015

Update 03/06/2015

I have been asked a few times to perform a phasing analysis on the US Dollar Basket but needed to wait for some cyclic trends to appear. There was a hugely bullish move up from the last 18 month cycle as some fundamental factors came into play. Here is how I see it now, medium term:

DX 06-15_daily_03_06_2015

There is a fair amount of trough pinning going on, which isn’t always the best sign. However I am confident the recent move up is a trough of 80 day magnitude and we can work from there. Longer term I think there is a 54 month trough due at the end of the year sometime…

DX 06-15_daily_03_06_20152Looking at the shorter cycles there is probably a pretty bearish looking ‘B’ category in progress at the moment which projects price back down to just above the recent 80 day low. The 20 week projection has a price down at 91. This could potentially be a great short as according to this phasing, the 40 week has been breached to the downside already. I will be looking to go short either at the top of the next 20 day cycle with an FLD cross or a breach of the 80 day low (more risky).

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