coffeebanner

Coffee Arabica Futures (KC)

Coffee Arabica Futures (KC)

Update 18/06/2015

Price moved back down through the 20 day FLD en route to the 20 day trough. If there is no significant move up here I will have to rethink. I will take a long on a cross of the 20 day FLD to the upside though. It could move fast.

Update 03/06/2015

Previously I had speculated that Coffee Arabica was due to hit an 18 month trough soon. This proved to be wrong and I think, one 80 day cycle too early. The fact that the average wavelength of the 18 month cycle was given at 15.8 months should have alerted me to the problem. The average wavelength in Hurst’s nominal model is 17.9 months. Trading was still profitable however with the A and C categories hitting T2 targets. Weakness was revealed by the 40 day trough and potential sideways to down move. The mistake in phasing was the placement of the 20 week trough. Here is how I see it now:

KC 07-15_daily_03_06_2015

The 20 week is placed a bit later by Sentient Trader in its default analysis and results in a neat nest of lows right about now. In addition the wavelength of the 18 month is much closer to the nominal average and increases my confidence in this phasing.

KC 07-15_daily_03_06_20152Alas I missed this possible ‘A’ category interaction with the FLD but of course as this is a potential 18 month low bounce there will be plenty of chances to get long in the weeks to come. I will want to see price break strongly above the 20 week FLD (green) to confirm the 18 month trough. Watch this space for updates!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.