Brent Crude Futures

Brent Crude Oil Futures

Update 20/08/2015

Price never got above the 20 day FLD and it seems increasingly likely that an 80 day bounce has already been straddled (broken) in oil, which is very bearish. The placement of that 80 day is difficult to pin down due to the overwhelming down moves. ST is ambiguous at the moment so I will not enter a trade for the meantime to the upside, although there may well be bounces. There is certainly a major trough coming in late Sept, so perhaps best to wait. Watch this space.

Update 06/08/2015

Both Brent and WTI moved down hard during July, resuming the trend that should see new lows later this year. The 40 day cycle trough was very weak and didn’t even manage to penetrate the 20 day FLD, instead reaching towards it before moving lower on the 10th of July. There is now an 80 day cycle low due very very soon. It should provide a nice pop to the upside but I will not be expecting that much and will probably get out at the peak of the 40 day. This will probably be just the ‘A’ category interaction as it is so bearish. Latest chart sets out a straightforward entry on a cross of the 20 day FLD. A more aggressive entry is a cross of the downwards 5 day VTL (cream line).

BRN 10-15_daily_06_08_2015It was tempting to get in long at the trough of the last 10 day trough of this 80 day cycle, thinking it may have been the 80 day low. However price found resistance right at the level of the 10 day FLD then continued it’s descent. In addition the 40 day cycle would have been too short. The cycles are clear now and this next long should be profitable for a short term swing trade.

Update 05/07/2015

Some clarity has been provided with the move in Brent below the 20 week trough back in late May:

BRN 08-15_daily_05_07_2015The move below that low indicates a straddled 20 week cycle and in addition the move below the 20 week VTL indicates that the peak on the 6th of May is of 40 week magnitude. This I believe means that both Brent and WTI are due to make another low, probably around mid October according to this phasing. The recent move is bearish medium term and shorts will be most profitable…however…

Short term… price is moving into a 40 day cycle low due imminently. The FLD interaction will be an ‘E’ category long and still worth taking in my opinion. I will post the target in due course if and when the interaction occurs this week.

Update 01/06/2015

Brent has been a great instrument to trade (along with CL) after the pop out of the large decline last year. The latest phasing I have places at least a 20 week trough back in early January. This chart has some question marks surrounding the 18 month placement there but we can work from the smaller cycles going forward, especially as the 80 day is so consistent. Price has just bounced out a 20 week cycle low and longs are in play for an ‘A’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD. I expect price to move above the high on the 6th of May judging by the bullish cycle shapes present. If the first 40 day cycle struggles to breach and hold that high I will start to consider the possibility of the low in January being a 40 week cycle trough with more bearish action to come in the next few months.

BRN 08-15_daily_01_06_2015

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