Australian Dollar vs US Dollar


Update 02/07/2015

T2 Target for this short ‘D’ category trade was hit and overshot on June 28th. The last 20 day cycle was 16 days though and price needs to come down again to make the correct 40 day low. After moving up subsequent to the June 28th low price touched the 40 day FLD (blue) and reversed. Nice short that one if you caught it, I missed it! As for the longer cycle phasing there are two possibilities. The first is that the 18 month phasing is correct and we will see a straddled trough which is very bearish or secondly the trough in April was at least 20 week and the next major low will be a 20 week trough. It matters little when trading using the 80 day cycle and interactions with the 20 day FLD, however. Here is the chart update:


Update 23/06/2015

D category short is in play now, target for T2 is currently 7597, potential double bottom there with the 80 day low. If it is broken hard I will reassess the 18 month phasing below.

Update 18/06/2015

Price move out of the 80 day low on June the 1st in a somewhat messy way. Nonetheless it has now moved up out of what is probably the first 20 day low of this current 80 day cycle. I have adjusted my long term view slightly in that I now feel the recent bounce in April is an 18 month trough. This matters little however as targets are taken from interactions with the 20 day FLD. Price has also moved past the 40 day FLD. If that target is overshot the phasing of the 18 month low will probably be correct.


Update 31/05/2015

The Aussie bounced out of what was most probably at this point a 20 week cycle low in early April. It is currently in a ‘F’ category interaction with the 20 day FLD and had a T2 target of 7656. This was overshot on the 28th. It may well be in the last 10 day cycle of the 80 day as it approaches the 20 week low. That depends on the placement of the 40 day trough as shown in the charts below, the second of which I have pinned the 40 day trough. I will be watching this closely for a possibly long out of the 80 day coming soon. I am not expecting that much though as the underlying trend is down and the next 80 day should be a bearish shape, according to the latest phasing at least. I am working from the knowledge that the last 18 month was late last year and straddled.

AUDUSD_£__daily_31_05_20152 AUDUSD_£__daily_31_05_2015

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